MAS expected to freeze policy as growth risks surge

It is scheduled to hold its second monetary policy meeting no later than 14 April.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is expected to keep its policy unchanged in April, as analysts point to rising growth risks, contained inflation, and an uncertain economic outlook that reduces the need for premature tightening.

RHB said there are rising downside risks to Singapore’s growth outlook, especially amidst tensions in the Middle East. It said that a prolonged shock could lower GDP growth from their prediction of 3% baseline toward 1.5% to 2%, as higher oil prices raise input costs and weigh on trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing, transport, and petrochemicals.

“Potential disruptions to critical materials, such as helium from the Gulf region, could constrain semiconductor and high-value manufacturing output, raising costs and limiting capacity,” RHB said.

Despite energy prices increasing, Singapore’s inflation also remains relatively contained, despite a modest year-on-year uptick in both headline and core prices. The inflation forecast is at 1.5%, though risks are now tilted to the upside.